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 reliable roadway crash risk assessment


Beta Distribution Learning for Reliable Roadway Crash Risk Assessment

Elallaf, Ahmad, Jacobs, Nathan, Ye, Xinyue, Chen, Mei, Liang, Gongbo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Roadway traffic accidents represent a global health crisis, responsible for over a million deaths annually and costing many countries up to 3% of their GDP. Traditional traffic safety studies often examine risk factors in isolation, overlooking the spatial complexity and contextual interactions inherent in the built environment. Furthermore, conventional Neural Network-based risk estimators typically generate point estimates without conveying model uncertainty, limiting their utility in critical decision-making. To address these shortcomings, we introduce a novel geospatial deep learning framework that leverages satellite imagery as a comprehensive spatial input. This approach enables the model to capture the nuanced spatial patterns and embedded environmental risk factors that contribute to fatal crash risks. Rather than producing a single deterministic output, our model estimates a full Beta probability distribution over fatal crash risk, yielding accurate and uncertainty-aware predictions--a critical feature for trustworthy AI in safety-critical applications. Our model outperforms baselines by achieving a 17-23% improvement in recall, a key metric for flagging potential dangers, while delivering superior calibration. By providing reliable and interpretable risk assessments from satellite imagery alone, our method enables safer autonomous navigation and offers a highly scalable tool for urban planners and policymakers to enhance roadway safety equitably and cost-effectively.